Exxon CEO Darren Woods has warned White House officials of a deepening oil crisis, and his concerns appear well-founded as US oil prices remain volatile entering the third week of the Iran war. Analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast Monday pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, with $4 fuel still within reach. The warning from one of America’s most powerful oil executives underscores the severity of the supply disruption created by the ongoing conflict.
The crisis began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran, triggering the supply disruptions that Woods and other executives have since warned about. The national gasoline average has risen 23% to $3.70 from below $3 per gallon before the conflict, reflecting three weeks of progressive damage to oil infrastructure and shipping lanes. The warning from Exxon’s CEO is particularly significant given the company’s unmatched insight into global oil supply dynamics.
The US strike on Kharg Island on Friday targeted Iran’s most important oil processing facility, adding to the supply disruption that has already driven prices sharply higher. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for roughly 20% of global oil supply, continues to deny international buyers access to a vital global energy corridor. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 following a brief Sunday surge to $100.
In California, average pump prices exceed $5 per gallon, with some Los Angeles stations posting above $8. Diesel for commercial transport could climb to $5.15 per gallon across the US. Along with Woods, the leaders of Conoco and Chevron have separately briefed White House officials on the escalating supply outlook, with all three warning that speculative market activity could amplify the impact of physical supply shortfalls.
Wall Street opened Monday cautiously, the S&P 500 gaining about 1% following a brief oil price pullback. Oil company stocks have surged to record highs since the conflict began. The warning from Exxon’s CEO reflects a wider consensus in the oil industry that the current supply crisis could deepen significantly before it improves, making early diplomatic intervention critical.